A longer version of this article was published by the Center for the National Interest and it can be found here.
President Trump dove into his new duties by declaring a national energy emergency and asserting that the United States will pursue energy dominance, including in nuclear power. But global nuclear power politics do not favor the United States at this moment, and it will take dramatic action by the new administration to disrupt the long-term drift toward semi-relevance in this important technology race. There are several steps that will remedy this situation.
1. Keep Russia Restrained and China Contained
Russia is the top global nuclear exporter and fuel provider. China leads the world in nuclear reactor construction. Both countries finance their nuclear industries, offer generous financial terms and credits to countries that select their technologies, and view nuclear exports as a geopolitical advantage. Russia’s dominance needs to be curtailed, and when it falls, China cannot be allowed to take its place. This requires that the U.S. expand its global nuclear energy market share for current and next-generation reactors around the globe.
2. Support America Unchained
To deploy reactors at scale, an effective strategy for the broad deployment of U.S. nuclear technology needs to be created. The U.S. government and industry (along with select allies) need to develop this roadmap rapidly and with clear metrics and objectives.
At home that means creative and committed financing that manages risk, incentives for utilities and hyper scalers to deploy nuclear energy, and steadily advancing the next-generation of nuclear technologies through the sticky regulatory and demonstration wickets.
Overseas, what is missing is a data-based approach that analyzes the energy, political, governance, and related metrics of a nation or region to identify which should be targets for U.S. nuclear technology and focus. The current metric of “engagements” (meetings, events, workshops) and the incremental process of “capacity building”, particularly in developing economy nations, have not led to concrete market commitments in nations that are best suited for American nuclear energy. Further, these nations will require significant technical and operational assistance from the reactor-supplying country to make the sale and ensure safe operation. Russia is willing to supply operators for the plants it exports, the U.S. nuclear export apparatus has no similar capability.
The current U.S. approach to nuclear deployment has to change and the Trump administration’s penchant for blunt force and unapologetic dismantling of the status quo may be what’s needed to juice this process.
3. Maintain High Nuclear Standards
There is significant international security danger in allowing one, or both, of the world’s leading authoritarian nations to dominate the global nuclear power market. At the very least, peril is posed by the less stringent nuclear security and nonproliferation standards of Russia and China. This has the potential to create crises through an accident, security breach, or clandestine nuclear weapon activity.
Historically, the major nuclear exporting nations have had the most impact on international security guidelines. So, failing to establish broad market share for U.S. (or allied) large and small reactors will decrease their influence over evolving nuclear nonproliferation and security rules and provide Russia and China with another avenue of global nuclear influence.
Ken Luongo, President, Partnership for Global Security
