A longer version of this article was published by The Center for the National Interest and it can be found here.
Nuclear energy evangelists becoming multi-millionaires and paper billionaires based on yet-to-be-proven projects represents the essence of the market’s power and the risk-taking that is required to resurrect America’s nuclear industry. But if this process leads to an irrationally exuberant nuclear power bubble that will ultimately melt down, it will undermine important pillars of U.S. national security.
This is an emerging and potentially serious flaw in the Trump administration’s approach to rebuilding nuclear power. There does not seem to be a plan for preventing overhyped nuclear Theranos. And repeating the cycle of over-promise followed by failure so well known in the nuclear energy ecosystem, can crater the rising appeal of nuclear power.
Trump’s Nuclear Torrent
There’s not much discernible strategy behind the Trump administration’s expansive nuclear power ambitions, but there is a clear logic—supercharge all possible pathways to success and hope for the best. Like many of the Trump administration’s initiatives, its nuclear energy plan is designed to blast away bureaucratic inertia, wreck perceived regulatory impediments, and render results with the least resistance.
Perhaps this is the shock therapy that the nuclear power sector needs to overcome stagnation and spark success. But right now, it seems questionable that the scattershot approach being pursued can meet the vital goal of aggressively scaling power reactors in America.
One example is the Nuclear Reactor Pilot Program. The demand from the President is that something new produce fission by July 4, 2026, to coincide with the nation’s 250th anniversary. This program includes 11 reactor pilot projects and faces a host of unanswered questions.
The urgency embedded in this initiative is laudable, but a rushed, gimmicky showpiece is not a stable foundation from which to launch a solid strategy that can produce 300 gigawatts (GW) of new nuclear power by 2050 or result in global nuclear energy domination. That goal requires a medium- to long-term game plan featuring a range of marketable reactor types and power ratings that the administration has not yet created.
It is in these circumstances of pushing rapidly beyond the old limits but not fully appreciating the downsides of an “app-influenced” mentality of moving fast and breaking things that nuclear bubble products begin to float to the surface.
Nuclear Power and National Security
The administration has identified nuclear energy as a national security priority, which is an important decision. But that national security value rests on a set of pillars that are vulnerable to an implosion if the Trump nuclear salvo fails.
Strengthening US and Allied Energy Independence: Energy independence has re-emerged as a vital geopolitical imperative in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This has led to a significant increase in the pursuit of nuclear power, particularly in Eastern Europe. But other nations, including the United Kingdom and Japan, are also moving forward with nuclear power expansion for energy security purposes. A solid consortium of Western nuclear suppliers, including the U.S., is essential to maintain this momentum.
Expanding Allies in Emerging Markets: The United States and its allies need to be able to compete in the emerging nuclear markets as well as established OECD nations. Many of these nations are better suited for small reactors. To realize this opportunity, the United States and its allies must do a better job of preparing these countries for Western technology by finding creative engagement strategies. Russia and China already operate SMRs and are working with a vast swatch of the Global South on energy and infrastructure. Also, Russia remains the world’s major nuclear energy exporter while China is orchestrating the largest nuclear energy buildout in history. The Trump plan is focused on the technology competition, but it also needs a complementary diplomatic and export market capture strategy.
Winning the Tech Revolution: Winning the artificial intelligence (AI) competition with China is a defining element of Trump’s foreign policy and the administration’s nuclear power plan is driven by the projected explosion of data centers to feed that industry. These data centers collectively could consume as much electricity as “nearly 16 Chicago’s” by 2030. Nuclear power is not ready for this energy explosion, and the scattershot Trump strategy could create further delays. No Westinghouse AP-1000’s are under contract or construction in America and only one American SMR company has received a design certification. Despite the Trump nuclear acceleration policies, small reactor companies are primarily looking at the mid-2030s for deployment. By then, data center mania may have passed its peak, raising questions about how these reactors will fare in the wake of that market satiation.
Building Nuclear Expansion Guardrails: As nuclear power expands, the international policy framework that ensures the safety and proliferation resistance of these technologies needs to adapt. The United States and its allies are best positioned, politically, to develop the adjustments and nuances for this new regime. But historically, the dominant nuclear power operator and exporter have written the rules. And, at the moment, that is Russia and China.
Ken Luongo, President, Partnership for Global Security
